Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row
Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
- Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row 3
- Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row Chart
Let's say you played 100 hours of blackjack this year and you just had your first 10-hand losing streak. Well you played at least 5000 hands, and your chance of losing at least 10 hands in a row at some point in that stretch was around 99%. The more players at the blackjack table, the better you are. And be sure to chip in with at least the table's maximum limit (to withstand long losing streaks). Try to play no more than 100 hands at the same table (higher probability for shorter losing streaks). You can play much more aggressively within the first 50-100 blackjack hands. Every player is dealt two cards at the beginning of a round of blackjack so this chart tells you the percentage of getting different categories of hands. A natural blackjack is only 4.8%, which essentially is an ace dealt with a ten card straight off the initial deal. Normally the odds are 3 to 2 and you would win $3 for every $2 wagered. The odds of losing ten hands without winning is.525^10, or 0.16%. In layman's terms, if you walk into the casino 1000 times, and you are willing to sit through up to 10 losing hands in order to get one winning hand, you should be able to get a winning hand 998.4 times out of 1000. Since there are four aces and 16 cards 10-K, the raw probability of a hand being blackjack is. So the odds of not getting blackjack the first hand would be ((52.
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
---|---|
21 | 100% |
20 | 92% |
19 | 85% |
18 | 77% |
17 | 69% |
16 | 62% |
15 | 58% |
14 | 56% |
13 | 39% |
12 | 31% |
11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
Two Card Count | % Frequency |
---|---|
Natural 21 | 4.8% |
Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
No Bust | 26.5% |
TOTAL | 100.0% |
Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row 3
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
---|---|---|
Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
---|---|---|
2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row Chart
Card | % Effect of Removal |
---|---|
2 | 0.40% |
3 | 0.43% |
4 | 0.52% |
5 | 0.67% |
6 | 0.45% |
7 | 0.30% |
8 | 0.01% |
9 | -0.15% |
10 | -0.51% |
A | -0.59% |
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